Supplementary figures for “Is my state ready to reopen? Seeing is believing”

(Last updated on 2020-05-20 14:34:48)

Hover over each figure to see values and more options. States and District of Columbia are color-coded by USDA’s geogrpahic region.

See data sources and methods at the end.

Figure 1. Latest cumulative incidence rate by state

Cumulative incidence rate: number of confirmed cases per 100,000 population. It is often not comparable directly, considering different testing rates. Also, definitions of confirmed cases can be slightly different across states.

(As of 2020-05-20)

(Colors represent geogrpahic regions by USDA. Orange: northeast, light orange: south, light green: midwest, green: west)

Figure 2. Latest COVID-19 specific mortaliaty rate by state

Mortality rate: number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population. Considering different testing rates, this may be the most appropriate indicator to compare impact of the epidemic across states - with an assumption that states are similar in terms of their capacity to identify and report deaths due to COVID-19.

(As of 2020-05-20)

(Colors represent geogrpahic regions by USDA. Orange: Northeast, light orange: South, light green: Midwest, green: West)

Figure 3. Latest case fatality rate by state

And, for those who wonder about Case fatality rate (CFR): number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. CFR is sensitive to demographic and clinical characteristics of patients. CFR can be high in states where testing has been limited to only people with clinical symptoms.

(As of 2020-05-20)

(Colors represent geogrpahic regions by USDA. Orange: Northeast, light orange: South, light green: Midwest, green: West)

Figure 4. Timeline of the first wave by state

Note, the peak length is still to be determined in many states (with no yellow dot below).

Figure 5. Height of the peak by state

The following compares the height of the peak (the maximum number of new cases per 100,000 population) by state.

Figure 6. Height of and time to the peak by state

And, if we put together the height of the peak (on a log scale, Y axis) and time to the peak (distance between the red and orange dots above)…

ANNEX

Data:
1. All COVID-19 data (i.e., cumulative confirmed cases and deaths by day) come from JHU/CSSE, accessed on 2020-05-20.
2. All data on state population come from US Census Bureau, accessed on March 29, 2020.
Note on comparability. JHU/CSSE compiles the best available data, but a definition of confirmed cases (even COVID-19 deaths) may differ across states and even within a state over time.

Mesures:
The number of new confirmed cases on each date was calculated based on the difference between cumulative numbers over two consecutive days. Then, a seven-day rolling average was calculated (hereinafter referred to as the smoothed number of new confirmed cases) to avoid any isolated peaks/drops, which can be caused by various reasons other than the true course of the epidemic itself (e.g., definition change, lab process delay, data errors). Then, the smoothed number was divided by the total population in the state: the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population. Still any abrupt changes over time given a state should be interpreted carefully.

The first wave was defined to start when the cumulative incidence rate exceeds one per 100,000 population. The smoothed number of new confirmed cases at the start of the first wave varies across states, but it averages around 0.5 per 100,000.
The peak date of the wave was the date when the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population was at its height.
The date entering the stable phase was when the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population was less than the number on the start date of the wave.

In the phase 2, states were further categorized based on % decrease from the peak, adjusted for the base level.

See GitHub for data, code, and more information. For typos, errors, and questions, contact me at www.isquared.global.

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